André Duvenhage is a political analyst and a Professor at North West University. He is 100% confident that Jacob Zuma will lose his vote of no confidence next week, and the country must ‘prepare for his removal’.
The veteran of SEVEN previous no confidence votes heads into next Tuesday’s ballot with his presidency teetering on the brink, following a succession of ludicrous political decisions and his role in the Guptas’ state capture.
This – without doubt – is the most perilous position Zuma has ever found himself in, and according to Duvenhage, it could be game over for the President in eight days’ time:
“There is a huge tide against Zuma this time around. There are more and more senior ANC members coming out against him. The country is opposed to state capture and his links with the Guptas.”
“His removal would not cause the ANC to break up because he would have been removed by parliament, not the ANC.”
The NWU professor believes that Julius Malema and his EFF party have had an irreversible influence on how Zuma is viewed by both the public and ANC members.
Speaking at the EFF’s fourth birthday celebrations in Durban this weekend, Malema claimed that he has canvassed 60 of the ruling party’s MPs to vote against JZ in the no confidence ballot: Just fifty of their votes would be required to oust the current leader.
Duvenhage then concluded that, with all the factors going against the president, he would launch a desperate bid to stay in power by drafting the army in. This is called the ‘Praetorian Scenario’, which would introduce elements of martial law to help him retain his presidency:
“The president may go with the “Praetorian Scenario” and use security forces to help him to remain in power.”
“We may be in for big trouble. When I read the body language of South African politics, the next six months will be crucial for the ruling party,”
When is the Vote of No Confidence?
If the last year or so has taught us anything about politics, it is to expect the unexpected: Even a few weeks ago, the idea of Zuma being voted out was still rather far-fetched.